Archive for the ‘Value Investing’ Category

Australia ETF – Exchange Traded Funds

Several people have asked me about stocks in general and investing in the stock market. First of all I don’t want to be the person giving them any advise especially since I don’t know what their risk profile, their financial circumstances and their financial plans for the future.

That said, I also don’t want them to just go blindly into the stock market and make all the mistakes I made. First thing to know is that there are two main types of stock market investors:

  • The speculator (Usually the technical chartist)
  • The Investor (Usually the fundamental investor)

I’ve done both in my life, and I can assure you that during the good times I think both of them will do well…. I know I did. Obviously with the market “falling off a cliff”, I am seeing the importance of fundamental/value investing. i.e. buying the company for what it is worth and not the actual stock that you trade in the market. For this reason, I highly recommend they read, The Intelligent Investor and for the more serious people, Security Analysis. Both are written by Benjamin Graham, the mentor of Warren Buffet.

Through my study of those books and many of Warren Buffet & Benjamin Graham’s material they recommend that for a person who does not want the trouble of stock selection or wanting to ‘beat the market’ etc. then they should invest in a low cost index fund (Australia ETF). Below is a question and answer session from one of Berkshire Hathaway Annual General Meeting. If this is the only thing you read from this blog, I truly believe it will be the best thing that has happened to you, so don’t take it lightly!

Q: “If you were 30 years old and had no dependents but a full-time job that precluded full-time investing, how would you invest your first million dollars, assuming that you can cover 18 months of expenses with other savings? Thank you in advance for being as specific as possible with asset classes and allocation percentage.”

A: Buffet:“…Put it all in a low-cost index fund like a Vanguard 500.” Munger: “Professionals take croupier profits out of the system. No one will give you this advice [index funds] because no one gets paid for it.” Munger: “The whole secret of successful investing [full-timers] is non-diversification. If you know nothing –> diversity.” Buffet: “There are situations, for the full-time investor, where it’d be a mistake not to invest 50% of your net worth in one business.” If more aggressive: small stocks and specialized bonds, but no currencies.

- The Four Hour Work Week

Now, if you’re in Australia here’s the good news! there’s only 3 low cost index funds (Australia ETF) so its easy for you to pick one. You can trade them like stock and all their Management Expense Ratio (MER) is less than 0.4% which is very low compared to normal managed funds where you have MER of 2% or more.

So if you’re looking for Australian ETF, look no further you can start investing like the big boys and get all the diversification benefits without the stress and pain of knowing what is actually going on in the Stock Market. Obviously we are ‘hoping’ for some future reward/gain in the very long future, ie. 10,20,30 years. Hope this helps!

Security Analysis – Benjamin Graham

As you might have figured out, I’ve been doing a lot of reading on Benjamin Graham and many of his material… I just found out that the book “Security Analysis – Benjamin Graham and David Dodd” actually made an appearance in the film, “The Pursuit of Happyness”

“The 5th edition of Security Analysis made an appearance in the film, The Pursuit of Happyness. The film prominently showed the 5th edition of Security Analysis — black jacket, white, gold, red fonts — as the one that Dean Witter Reynolds required 60 unpaid interns to study for six months. The intern portion of the story is circa 1981; the 5th edition of Security Analysis was published in 1988; therefore, the film production prop department used the wrong edition.” – wikipedia

Anyways, I thought it was quite interesting that it was show-cased in the movie…

Security Analysis – Benjamin Graham is actually a very comprehensive book, it’s pretty much all the details of The Intelligent Investor. I think it’ll be one of the next book I’ll be reading (depending on whether I feel like getting into the details etc). If you’re thinking of picking up this book, make sure you get the 6th Edition (publish in 2008) because it has all the new commentary which is more relevant to our current economy etc.

The Intelligent Investor – Why You Will Want to Read It

If you’re looking for a local copy (Perth, Australia) of The Intelligent Investor, you might want to try Boffin in the City. You can pick it up for $45 which is cheaper than all the other bookstores within walking distance to the CBD (that I checked).

Anyways, a few people has asked me, “why are you reading this book?. The answer to this is very simple… I was reading some old blog post from the Four Hour Work Week and I came across one particular post where Timothy Ferriss raced for the opportunity to ask Warren Buffet a question at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual General Meeting (AGM). Anyways the long story short, one of the many questions that was asked in that particular AGM was:

Q:What’s the best books to read for investing and life?

A1: (Buffet) Chapters 8 and 20 in The Intelligent Investor.

A2: (Munger) Anything by Ben Franklin.

I don’t know about you, apart from my ’studying’ days, nobody has ever recommended reading two chapters out of any book to me. Most people just recommend a book, but Warren Buffet is not anybody and he was deliberately specific (in my opinion). I Figured if Warren Buffet spent that extra second to point out two chapters out of a single book, I should at least make the effort to go read the two Chapters.

Anyways, for anybody who is curious about what’s Chapter 8 and Chapter 20 I better put you out of your misery.

  • Chapter 8: The Investor and Market Fluctuation
  • Chapter 20: “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

Standard and Poor’s 500 – Price to Book Ratio

I’ve been doing research into value investing – ie. buying stuff below book value (it’s not exactly as clear cut as, if Price < Equity then buy).
Things you’ll want to consider are:

  • Non-Current Assets – plant and equipment (how much are they really worth??)
  • Are there Long term debt? heavily leverage companies are not good (especially if it takes many years to repay the debt from their net income)

Anyways, I’ve attached a diagram of the Standard and Poor’s 500 – Price to Book Ratio. We can see that in the 1980s, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index was trading at around book value. That is usually the point where great wealth is accumulated (e.g. Warren Buffet)

standard & Poor 500 Price on Book Ratio

If you’re looking at how to find below book value stock, check out the Stock Screener I was trying out in my other post – The Intelligent Investor: Looking for Below Book Value … It’s just something I was experimenting with and I’ll refine it when I find better techniques. I think one of the better stock screener to use is the one on Money Central. If you’re on a Mac like me, don’t bother trying, it won’t work. I even tried downloading IE 5.23 for Mac (But the toolbox is only compatible for IE6 and above and Microsoft stopped support IE for Mac.

The Intelligent Investor: Looking for Below Book Value

Book doing a bit of research on Under Valued Stock – Picked up a book called, “The Intelligent Investor” – Benjamin Graham. Benjamin Graham is Warren Buffet’s mentor and Warren Buffet has quoted “The Intelligent Investor” several time. (Warren has highlighted Chapter 8 and Chapter 20, which is “The Investor and Market Fluctuations” and “Margin of Safety”, respectively.

Anyways, I was doing a bit of playing on Google Stock Screener and here’s a screener I made to filter out profitable undervalue stocks (note: you have to look for the ones which book value/share greater than last price of share)

Looking For Below Book Value Stocks

If you’re looking for the book check this out, It’s selling for $50 in the book store, if you buy it from an Australian online store it’ll cost $40 but you have to pay $6-7 in shipping. If you can wait, I think the value is to buy it online and get it shipped (even though its in USD) – current exchange rate is about 0.65 (ends up being less than $40

Check out the: The Intelligent Investor

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