Archive for the ‘Shares’ Category

Art Cashin Talks About Why He sold His Stocks

Art Cashin is the director of floor operations in UBS, I’ve been following him for the past 6 months and have been watching almost all of his segments on CNBC. I noticed he’s bee pretty pessimistic about the market over the past couple of months and has been very cautious about investing more of his funds into the market. Yesterday, 27th August 2009 was the first time I actually heard Art Cashin talk openly about selling down his portfolio. More specifically his holdings in financials… Art talks about taking risk off the table and always iterates that the fundamentals of the economy cannot justify the current valuation on the market (i.e. the market is currently over bought). Whether this is true, time will tell.

Hope you enjoy this particluar video from CNBC, If you want to check out all of Art Cashin’s videos and commentary then click here

Finding Your Lost Super

Came across these resources when I was looking through my own super… (obviously trying to find if i had any lost super)

Firstly, besides the obvious important point that superannuation is money set aside for our retirement it also the place where people buy their term life insurance ie. life insurance and also total and permanent disabled (TPD) insurance. Here lies one of the problem when you have multiple superannuations… most people’s superannuation will automatically buy a fixed amount of life insurance and TPD. Meaning, if there was a minimum of 100k for life insurance and TPD and you had 5 different superannuation fund then you would have a total of 500K worth of life insurance and TPD… this might sound good, but the problem is you are only topping up one of your superannuation and you might not need all that life insurance and TPD. (insurance cost money! i.e. your superannuation is being eaten away by the insurance fee through time)

The other problem is just simply the fee these superannuation fund charge everybody… they usually take a % of your portfolio value with a minimum amount (which ever is greater) so having 5 superannuation fund with $10,000 in them is definitely not smart. So it’s obviously something useful if you can find all your lost super and pool it into your favourite fund.
If you wish to track down your super contributions made by a past employer, you can register with the Lost Superannuation Register on the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) Website. There is no cost through this method and it only requires you to fill in a form and send to the ATO. Visit the super section of the ATO website.

There’s another external group that do the searching for you, I personally don’t think this is necessary unless you’ve had lots of jobs in the pass and have no idea where all your super money has gone… If this sounds like you then you might want to check out Find my super. Either that or you’re feeling lazy, I’m not sure how much they charge, but i’m guessing its something…

Anyways, good luck! I’ve noticed that my superannuation has been losing about 5-10% every year for the past 5 years (after deducting my contributions) even though for the early period, the stock market was positive… I suspect this was eaten up all in fees and insurance cost… (I don’t have much money in my super at the moment, but it makes me stop to think what’s the purpose of this if the fees are so high! )

Australia ETF – Exchange Traded Funds

Several people have asked me about stocks in general and investing in the stock market. First of all I don’t want to be the person giving them any advise especially since I don’t know what their risk profile, their financial circumstances and their financial plans for the future.

That said, I also don’t want them to just go blindly into the stock market and make all the mistakes I made. First thing to know is that there are two main types of stock market investors:

  • The speculator (Usually the technical chartist)
  • The Investor (Usually the fundamental investor)

I’ve done both in my life, and I can assure you that during the good times I think both of them will do well…. I know I did. Obviously with the market “falling off a cliff”, I am seeing the importance of fundamental/value investing. i.e. buying the company for what it is worth and not the actual stock that you trade in the market. For this reason, I highly recommend they read, The Intelligent Investor and for the more serious people, Security Analysis. Both are written by Benjamin Graham, the mentor of Warren Buffet.

Through my study of those books and many of Warren Buffet & Benjamin Graham’s material they recommend that for a person who does not want the trouble of stock selection or wanting to ‘beat the market’ etc. then they should invest in a low cost index fund (Australia ETF). Below is a question and answer session from one of Berkshire Hathaway Annual General Meeting. If this is the only thing you read from this blog, I truly believe it will be the best thing that has happened to you, so don’t take it lightly!

Q: “If you were 30 years old and had no dependents but a full-time job that precluded full-time investing, how would you invest your first million dollars, assuming that you can cover 18 months of expenses with other savings? Thank you in advance for being as specific as possible with asset classes and allocation percentage.”

A: Buffet:“…Put it all in a low-cost index fund like a Vanguard 500.” Munger: “Professionals take croupier profits out of the system. No one will give you this advice [index funds] because no one gets paid for it.” Munger: “The whole secret of successful investing [full-timers] is non-diversification. If you know nothing –> diversity.” Buffet: “There are situations, for the full-time investor, where it’d be a mistake not to invest 50% of your net worth in one business.” If more aggressive: small stocks and specialized bonds, but no currencies.

- The Four Hour Work Week

Now, if you’re in Australia here’s the good news! there’s only 3 low cost index funds (Australia ETF) so its easy for you to pick one. You can trade them like stock and all their Management Expense Ratio (MER) is less than 0.4% which is very low compared to normal managed funds where you have MER of 2% or more.

So if you’re looking for Australian ETF, look no further you can start investing like the big boys and get all the diversification benefits without the stress and pain of knowing what is actually going on in the Stock Market. Obviously we are ‘hoping’ for some future reward/gain in the very long future, ie. 10,20,30 years. Hope this helps!

Australian Stock Screeners

Somebody was asking me about how I find stocks in the Australian Market… obviously they were asking for some type of Australian Stock Screener

The answer comes in two parts, if you are will to open a full service account with a broker they usually provide some sort of stock screener for the Australian Market. Plus they’ll give you reports and analysis (whether you believe what they write is up to you). If you want a free stock screener (Although, not exactly the best looking one I’ve seen but at least it can screen Australian stock relatively well) then try:

I’ve used it a few times just to see if the results makes sense, but personally I don’t actively trade in the Australian Market (hence I don’t need this tool, plus if I wanted it I would just use my full service broker to get the information)

This is one of the reasons why I dislike trading in the Australian Market, simply because information is not easy to find, consolidate and compare. I feel that having a stock screener that you can trust is important and that’s why I love Google Stock Screener for US stocks.

Other reasons why I dislike trading in the Australian Market are:

  • Liquidity (in the underlying stock and also the derivatives)
  • Transaction fees is higher in Australia
  • A single platform in the Market that allows me to trade majority of the instrument available (Stocks, Bonds, Exchange Traded Funds, Options etc.)
  • Inability to find information easily so that I can compare between multiple companies in the same industry

I can go on with the list and go into details, but I’ll spare readers the pain of my ranting. Hope you find the Australia Stock Screener useful, let me know what you think or if you know any other better ones out there by leaving a comment.

Free Financial Advice

No, I’m not giving free financial advice today. I’m just proving a point to a friend that I can actually get this post up on to the first page of Google for the keyword: “Free Financial Advice”. That said, I don’t want any readers to miss out especially if they are looking on resources on Free Financial Advice.

  • If you’re interested in Property Investing, such as how to finance a property or just to see how a property deal looks like then check out these Property Examples
  • If you’re more interested in Share Trading or Investing in the stock market I highly recommend you read what Warren Buffet has been doing over the past 6 months. Personally, I think in the current market you’ll want to find out about about Value Investing
  • If you’re looking for resources on personal development, property investing, share market investing, building businesses you’ll want to visit Your Success Club where you can get access to hundreds of online resources for just $1. There’s books in there that are worth thousands of dollars if you actually go to the book store and buy them

It’s not exactly Free Financial Advice here, but hopefully you’ve got some useful information that you can use. Let me know what you want me to research and write about in the comments and I’ll do my best the find the answers for you! Anyways, fingers crossed for me to get to the first page on Google…

S&P 500 Index – Double Top?

Looking at the S&P500 Index, it looks like the support level has finally broken… How much further will it go? Well from the support to the top is about 600 points, so from the support down to the potential new low would be around 200 something. Will it get there? I don’t know… All I know is that there is a technical ‘fracture’ point and the chances of it falling some more is much greater than it recovering (technically speaking)

So to everybody out there still in the market, be a bit careful… there’s definitely lots of bargains but God knows where the market is heading.

Security Analysis – Benjamin Graham

As you might have figured out, I’ve been doing a lot of reading on Benjamin Graham and many of his material… I just found out that the book “Security Analysis – Benjamin Graham and David Dodd” actually made an appearance in the film, “The Pursuit of Happyness”

“The 5th edition of Security Analysis made an appearance in the film, The Pursuit of Happyness. The film prominently showed the 5th edition of Security Analysis — black jacket, white, gold, red fonts — as the one that Dean Witter Reynolds required 60 unpaid interns to study for six months. The intern portion of the story is circa 1981; the 5th edition of Security Analysis was published in 1988; therefore, the film production prop department used the wrong edition.” – wikipedia

Anyways, I thought it was quite interesting that it was show-cased in the movie…

Security Analysis – Benjamin Graham is actually a very comprehensive book, it’s pretty much all the details of The Intelligent Investor. I think it’ll be one of the next book I’ll be reading (depending on whether I feel like getting into the details etc). If you’re thinking of picking up this book, make sure you get the 6th Edition (publish in 2008) because it has all the new commentary which is more relevant to our current economy etc.

The Intelligent Investor – Why You Will Want to Read It

If you’re looking for a local copy (Perth, Australia) of The Intelligent Investor, you might want to try Boffin in the City. You can pick it up for $45 which is cheaper than all the other bookstores within walking distance to the CBD (that I checked).

Anyways, a few people has asked me, “why are you reading this book?. The answer to this is very simple… I was reading some old blog post from the Four Hour Work Week and I came across one particular post where Timothy Ferriss raced for the opportunity to ask Warren Buffet a question at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual General Meeting (AGM). Anyways the long story short, one of the many questions that was asked in that particular AGM was:

Q:What’s the best books to read for investing and life?

A1: (Buffet) Chapters 8 and 20 in The Intelligent Investor.

A2: (Munger) Anything by Ben Franklin.

I don’t know about you, apart from my ’studying’ days, nobody has ever recommended reading two chapters out of any book to me. Most people just recommend a book, but Warren Buffet is not anybody and he was deliberately specific (in my opinion). I Figured if Warren Buffet spent that extra second to point out two chapters out of a single book, I should at least make the effort to go read the two Chapters.

Anyways, for anybody who is curious about what’s Chapter 8 and Chapter 20 I better put you out of your misery.

  • Chapter 8: The Investor and Market Fluctuation
  • Chapter 20: “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

Standard and Poor’s 500 – Price to Book Ratio

I’ve been doing research into value investing – ie. buying stuff below book value (it’s not exactly as clear cut as, if Price < Equity then buy).
Things you’ll want to consider are:

  • Non-Current Assets – plant and equipment (how much are they really worth??)
  • Are there Long term debt? heavily leverage companies are not good (especially if it takes many years to repay the debt from their net income)

Anyways, I’ve attached a diagram of the Standard and Poor’s 500 – Price to Book Ratio. We can see that in the 1980s, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index was trading at around book value. That is usually the point where great wealth is accumulated (e.g. Warren Buffet)

standard & Poor 500 Price on Book Ratio

If you’re looking at how to find below book value stock, check out the Stock Screener I was trying out in my other post – The Intelligent Investor: Looking for Below Book Value … It’s just something I was experimenting with and I’ll refine it when I find better techniques. I think one of the better stock screener to use is the one on Money Central. If you’re on a Mac like me, don’t bother trying, it won’t work. I even tried downloading IE 5.23 for Mac (But the toolbox is only compatible for IE6 and above and Microsoft stopped support IE for Mac.

The Intelligent Investor: Looking for Below Book Value

Book doing a bit of research on Under Valued Stock – Picked up a book called, “The Intelligent Investor” – Benjamin Graham. Benjamin Graham is Warren Buffet’s mentor and Warren Buffet has quoted “The Intelligent Investor” several time. (Warren has highlighted Chapter 8 and Chapter 20, which is “The Investor and Market Fluctuations” and “Margin of Safety”, respectively.

Anyways, I was doing a bit of playing on Google Stock Screener and here’s a screener I made to filter out profitable undervalue stocks (note: you have to look for the ones which book value/share greater than last price of share)

Looking For Below Book Value Stocks

If you’re looking for the book check this out, It’s selling for $50 in the book store, if you buy it from an Australian online store it’ll cost $40 but you have to pay $6-7 in shipping. If you can wait, I think the value is to buy it online and get it shipped (even though its in USD) – current exchange rate is about 0.65 (ends up being less than $40

Check out the: The Intelligent Investor

Free Sprint Phones with Plans | Thanks to CD Rates, Conveyancing and Registry Software