Archive for July, 2007

FXR

Closed out my FXR today, had a good 2-3 day run and its trading outside the boolinger bands. During this time they had a production upgrade which caused the stock to rally. Currently they haven’t done the magnetic survey for iron ore yet. That said, since I was only going to be in and out for this one (short term for speculation) i better get out while its good.

The Trade
Buy 10,000 FXR @ $1.0452 ($10,452) – 4th July 2007
Sell 10,000 FXR @ $1.2288 ($12,288) – 13th July 2007
Profit $1,836.00 in 10 days.

ANZ

US market did well, DJIA & NASDAQ broke above the triple top. When the Australian market opened the same thing happened. ANZ is trading at a very low level and I believe it will be relatively stable in the next 2-3 weeks. This is a short trade because I’ve been waiting for the market to pick a direction, also banking stocks are usually stable, low volatility. Opened this one close to the money to get the premium, I wanted to be long in something after the breakout today!

The Trade (ANZ) – Traded on 13th July 2007
Sell Jul $29.26 Puts @ $0.195
Buy Jul $28.78 Puts @ $0.08

Expiry = 26/07/2007
Share/Contract = 1042
Max Profit = 0.115 (0.195-0.08)
Max Risk = 0.365 [(29.26 - 28.78 ) - (0.195-0.08)]
Return on Risk = 31.51%
Breakeven = $29.145

I opened 10 contracts:
Reward for trade (excluding fees) $1,198.3
Reward for trade (including fees) $988.90
Value At Risk $3,803.3

How to Buy Your First Home For Less Than $10,000!

This is a real life example that happened over the weekend, 8th July 2007. This is not my purchase, but I have been given permission to post the transaction for people to have a look. Just a breif overview:

  • The property was listing “From $285,000″
  • It is a 2×1 villa in a small group of 10
  • Owners are keen to sell it and agent is even more keen to sell because the property has been on market for more than 6 weeks (most probably end of listing period – ie no commission for agent. Plus previous person pull their offer out)
  • Agent mentioned that the owners are happy to sell for 280-285, below listing price
  • Property is within 2-10km radius from the CBD
  • Property is unrenovated and requires a bit of work
  • Plenty of comparable sales near by with lots of expensive cars on the street
  • Freshly painted property in this area sell for $300,000 – $320,000

Offer was written and accepted a few hours later. So how does this all work??
Firstly, Finance has already been pre-approved with a lender for 97%, interest only, fixed rates for 5 years

The Trade

  • Purchase Price: $280,000
  • Lenders Mortgage Insurance (~2%): $5,600
  • Stamp Duty: $9,700
  • Loan Value (97%): $271,600 (2% for Lenders Mortgage Insurance)
  • Cash Needed: 14,000 (5% deposit) + 9,700 (stamp duty) + 2,000 (closing cost)
  • FREE MONEY RECEIVED: $2,000 ( Home Buyer Assistance Account) + $7,000 ( First Home Owner’s Grant) + $9,700 ( Stamp Duty Rebate)
  • Real Cash Needed: $7,000 ($14,000+$9,700+$2,000-$2,000-$7,000-$9,700)

Sold! This is the easiest way to buy a property for less than $10,000

Some of you must be thinking, “how do I pay for the mortgage”…

  • Loan Amount: $271,600
  • Interest Payment (7.75%): $21,049 per year
  • Rates: $1,200 per year
  • Strata: $1,000 per year
  • Cost Per Year: $23,249 ($447.10 per week)

What you need to do is find a friend to stay with you and charge them $100-$150 a week!

Lets say in one year time you decide to be smart and rent your place out for $200 a week

  • Loan Amount: $271,600
  • Interest Payment (7.75%): $21,049 per year
  • Rates: $1,200 per year
  • Strata: $1,000 per year
  • Cost Per Year: $23,249 ($447.10 per week)
  • Rent: $10,400 (200×52)
  • Management Fee (9%): $936
  • Depreciation: $2,000

Net Cashflow: 10,400 – $936 – $21,049 – $1,200 – $1,000 = -$13,785
Tax Break From ATO (assuming 30% tax bracket): ($13,785 + $2,000) x 30% = $4,735.5 (cash back)
Net Cashflow: -$13,785 + $4,735.5 = -$9,049.5 ($174 per week)

FXR – CFD

Reason
This is a 7 month breakout on a weekly chart! Its been treading down for the past 7 months and it has broken past its support level this week. This is a speculative trade, its a good idea to have a portion of your portfolio put into these trades because if you’re right you’ll make some good money. Obviously, if you’re wrong you need to know when to cut your losses.

The annoucement on FXR is that it discovered some Iron Ore prospect on their land. They will be doing more test and survey on the land to see if there is any magnetic disturbances. (hopefully there are) Apprently they fly helicopters with some magnetic reader and see if the readings goes crazy. Lets see how it pans out, I don’t intend to be in this trade for a long time unless the find more ore prospect in the weeks to come!

The Trade (4th July 2007)
Buy 10,000 FXR @ $1.0452 ($10,452)
Margin Required: $1,045.2 (10%)

OSH

wrote some naked puts (ie, insure somebody for their precious stocks) on OSH because I am happy to buy OSH at these prices. Lots of consolidation at $4.20 with plenty of support at $4 and $3.7 and there is plenty of room to move to $4.6

I wrote down on my note pad I kept 5-10 years ago when I was looking at stocks “when in doubt, buy oil and gold” These are defensive stocks and hopefully will hold out if anything crazy happens to the stock market.

The Trade (OSH) – Traded on 4th July 2007
Sell Jul $4.22 Puts @ $0.145
Stock closed at 4.15 today, so there is 7c intrinsic value & 7.5ctime value

Expiry = 26/07/2007
Share/Contract = 1007
Max Profit = 0.145
Max Risk = 4.145 [4.22 – 0.075)

Return on Risk (not exercised/assigned) = 3.44%
Return on Risk (exercised/assigned) = 1.78%

Breakeven = $4.145

I opened 13 contract:
Reward for trade (excluding fees) $1,898.195
Reward for trade (including fees) $TBA

Value At Risk $54,262.195

QBE

QBE is trading at the support level, its been trending sideway for the past 4 months so its trading at the support and should bounce back. That said, the market is quite volatile last month so I’ve done a $1 spread to reduce the risk (ie. breakeven is lower).

The Trade (QBE) – Traded on 4th July2007
Sell Jul $30.50 Puts @ $0.385
Buy Jul $29.50 Puts @ $0.185

Expiry = 26/07/2007
Share/Contract = 1000
Max Profit = 0.20 (0.385-0.185)
Max Risk = 0.8 [(30.5-29.5) - (0.385-0.185)]
Return on Risk = 25%
Breakeven = $30.30

I opened 5 contracts:
Reward for trade (excluding fees) $1,000.0
Reward for trade (including fees) $801.80
Value At Risk $4,000.0

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